Inflation Indicators

Price stability measures and monetary policy impact

Inflation's Currency Impact

Inflation data directly influences central bank policy decisions and currency valuations. Higher than expected inflation typically leads to hawkish policy shifts and currency strength, while low inflation can trigger dovish responses. CPI and PCE releases often cause 80-250+ pip movements, especially when significantly deviating from expectations.

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

HIGH IMPACT - ALL

Most widely watched inflation measure, tracking cost of goods and services for consumers.

Release:Monthly, mid-month
Target (US):2.0% annually
Typical Volatility:100-250 pips

Core CPI

HIGH IMPACT - ALL

CPI excluding volatile food and energy prices, Fed's preferred trend inflation measure.

Excludes:Food & energy
Fed Focus:Policy decisions
Typical Volatility:80-200 pips

PCE Deflator

HIGHEST IMPACT - USD

Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, Fed's preferred inflation measure.

Fed Preference:Primary target
Core PCE Target:2.0% annually
Typical Volatility:60-180 pips

Producer Price Index (PPI)

MEDIUM IMPACT

Wholesale inflation measure, leading indicator of future consumer price pressures.

Level:Producer/wholesale
Leading Indicator:Future CPI trends
Typical Volatility:40-120 pips

Inflation Expectations

POLICY DRIVER

Market and consumer expectations for future inflation, influences central bank policy proactively.

Measure:5Y5Y forward rate
Survey:University Michigan
Policy Impact:Forward guidance

Import Price Index

LOW-MEDIUM IMPACT

Cost of imported goods and services, reflects currency strength and global price pressures.

Currency Link:Strong USD = lower import prices
Global Factor:Commodity prices
Typical Volatility:20-60 pips

Trading Inflation Data

High Inflation Impact

  • Above-target inflation → Hawkish central bank → Currency strength
  • Rising inflation expectations → Rate hike probability increases
  • Core inflation surge → Sustained policy tightening expected

Low Inflation Impact

  • Below-target inflation → Dovish policy → Currency weakness
  • Deflation risks → Rate cut expectations → Accommodation policies
  • Disinflation trend → Extended low rate environment