GDP Growth
Economic growth measurement and currency impact
GDP Growth & Currency Strength
Gross Domestic Product measures the total value of goods and services produced in an economy. Strong GDP growth signals economic health and often leads to currency appreciation, while weak growth can trigger currency weakness. GDP releases typically cause 80-200+ pip movements, especially when significantly deviating from expectations.
Flash GDP (Advance)
HIGH IMPACT
First estimate released ~1 month after quarter end, highest market impact due to timeliness.
Quarter-over-Quarter
SHORT-TERM TREND
Quarterly growth rate, often annualized, shows recent economic momentum and trend changes.
Year-over-Year
LONG-TERM TREND
Annual growth rate removes seasonal effects, better for long-term economic assessment.
GDP Components
DETAILED ANALYSIS
Consumption, Investment, Government Spending, Net Exports breakdown shows economic drivers.
GDP Price Deflator
INFLATION MEASURE
Broad inflation measure covering all GDP components, complementary to CPI data.
GDP Revisions
DATA UPDATES
Preliminary → Second → Final estimates with increasing accuracy as more data becomes available.
Trading GDP Data
Strong GDP Impact
- +Above-consensus growth → Currency strength (economic confidence)
- +Accelerating growth → Rate hike expectations increase
- +Consumption-driven growth → Sustainable expansion signal
Weak GDP Impact
- -Below-consensus growth → Currency weakness (recession fears)
- -Contracting economy → Rate cut expectations → Dovish policy
- -Two consecutive quarters decline → Technical recession