Employment Data

Labor market indicators and currency impact

Employment Data in Forex

Employment data is one of the most market-moving economic indicators, directly affecting central bank policy decisions and currency strength. Strong job growth signals economic health and potential rate hikes, while weak employment data can lead to dovish policy shifts. Non-Farm Payrolls alone can move USD pairs 150-300+ pips.

Non-Farm Payrolls

EXTREME IMPACT - USD

Monthly US job creation report, most watched employment indicator globally.

Release Date:First Friday of month
Release Time:13:30 GMT
Typical Volatility:150-300 pips

Unemployment Rate

HIGH IMPACT - ALL

Percentage of labor force actively seeking employment, key Fed dual mandate indicator.

Full Employment:~4% (US target)
Policy Impact:Fed decision factor
Typical Volatility:50-150 pips

Average Hourly Earnings

HIGH IMPACT - USD

Wage growth indicator, important for inflation expectations and Fed policy decisions.

Inflation Link:Wage-price spiral
Fed Focus:3.0-3.5% growth
Typical Volatility:80-200 pips

Initial Jobless Claims

MEDIUM IMPACT - USD

Weekly unemployment benefit applications, timely indicator of labor market health.

Frequency:Weekly (Thursday)
Health Level:Below 400k
Typical Volatility:20-60 pips

Labor Force Participation

MEDIUM IMPACT

Percentage of working-age population actively participating in labor market.

Pre-Pandemic:~63.3% (US)
Fed Focus:Economic capacity
Typical Volatility:30-80 pips

Job Openings (JOLTS)

MEDIUM IMPACT - USD

Job openings and labor turnover survey, indicates labor demand strength.

Release:Monthly, 2-month lag
Strong Level:Above 6 million
Typical Volatility:40-100 pips

Trading Employment Data

Strong Employment Impact

  • +
    High job growth → Currency strength (economic health signal)
  • +
    Rising wages → Inflation expectations → Rate hike probability
  • +
    Low unemployment → Full employment → Hawkish central bank policy

Weak Employment Impact

  • -
    Job losses → Currency weakness (recession fears)
  • -
    Rising unemployment → Economic slowdown → Rate cut expectations
  • -
    Falling wages → Disinflationary pressures → Dovish policy shift