Cycle Analysis

Market cycles and timing analysis for forex trading

Market Cycles & Time Analysis

Cycle analysis studies repetitive patterns in market behavior across different timeframes. Markets move in cycles driven by economic seasons, lunar phases, weekly patterns, and mathematical sequences like Fibonacci. Understanding these cycles helps hubs time entries, exits, and anticipate market turning points with higher probability.

Seasonal Patterns

ANNUAL CYCLES

Recurring market patterns based on calendar months and seasons affecting currency performance.

January Effect:Risk-on bias
Summer Doldrums:Low volatility
Year-End:USD strength

Daily Time Cycles

INTRADAY PATTERNS

Daily trading session cycles and optimal times for different currency pairs based on market hours.

Asian Session:JPY, AUD strength
London Open:EUR, GBP volatility
NY Session:USD dominance

Fibonacci Time Cycles

MATHEMATICAL SEQUENCES

Time-based Fibonacci projections identifying potential turning points based on mathematical ratios.

Key Numbers:13, 21, 34, 55, 89
Application:Days/weeks from highs/lows
Accuracy:Higher timeframes

Lunar Cycles

CELESTIAL PATTERNS

Moon phase correlations with market behavior, particularly around new moon and full moon periods.

New Moon:Often trend beginnings
Full Moon:Potential reversals
Cycle Length:29.5 days average

Economic Cycles

BUSINESS CYCLES

Long-term economic expansion and contraction cycles affecting currency strength over months and years.

Expansion Phase:Risk currencies strong
Recession Phase:Safe havens favor
Average Length:7-10 years

Weekly Patterns

DAY-OF-WEEK EFFECTS

Systematic patterns in currency performance across different days of the week and weekly cycles.

Monday:Gap openings, reversals
Tuesday-Thursday:Strongest trends
Friday:Profit taking, choppy

Trading with Cycle Analysis

Cycle Identification

  • 1
    Measure time between major highs and lows to identify dominant cycles
  • 2
    Look for regular intervals: 7-10 days, 2-4 weeks, 2-3 months
  • 3
    Use spectral analysis or FFT to identify hidden periodicities

Trading Applications

  • 💡
    Time entries around expected cycle lows for trend continuation
  • 💡
    Anticipate trend changes near cycle highs and reversal windows
  • 💡
    Combine cycle analysis with price action for high-probability setups

Common Forex Cycles

Short-Term Cycles

Intraday
  • • 4-hour cycles (6 cycles per day)
  • • 8-hour cycles (3 cycles per day)
  • • Session-based cycles (Asian/London/NY)

Medium-Term Cycles

Daily/Weekly
  • • 7-10 day cycles (weekly patterns)
  • • 20-22 day cycles (monthly)
  • • 45-50 day cycles (quarterly)

Long-Term Cycles

Monthly/Yearly
  • • 6-month seasonal cycles
  • • Annual calendar effects
  • • 4-year presidential cycles

Cycle Trading Rules

✅ Best Practices

  • • Combine multiple cycle lengths for confirmation
  • • Use cycles as timing filter, not standalone signals
  • • Focus on dominant cycles (most reliable patterns)
  • • Allow 10-15% variance in cycle timing
  • • Higher timeframe cycles are more reliable

❌ Common Mistakes

  • • Over-relying on precise cycle timing
  • • Ignoring fundamental market changes
  • • Using cycles in trending markets only
  • • Not adjusting for holiday/event distortions
  • • Forcing patterns where none exist